In this short article I am exploring what the Dutch political landscape would look like if it operated under a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system.
The election data for the Netherlands was downloaded from the Kiesraad. The shapefile was downloaded from ESRI NL.
Results Tweede Kamer Verkiezing 2021
These are the 2021 results summarised:
| party | votes | seats | percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| VVD | 2279126 | 34 | 22.3 |
| D66 | 1565862 | 24 | 15.3 |
| PVV | 1124482 | 17 | 11.0 |
| CDA | 990601 | 15 | 9.7 |
| PvdA | 597192 | 9 | 5.8 |
| SP | 623371 | 9 | 6.1 |
| FvD | 523083 | 8 | 5.1 |
| GROENLINKS | 537308 | 8 | 5.3 |
| PvdD | 399751 | 6 | 3.9 |
| ChristenUnie | 351275 | 5 | 3.4 |
| DENK | 211238 | 3 | 2.1 |
| JA21 | 246620 | 3 | 2.4 |
| SGP | 215249 | 3 | 2.1 |
| Volt | 252480 | 3 | 2.5 |
| BBB | 104319 | 1 | 1.0 |
| BIJ1 | 87238 | 1 | 0.9 |
| Partij 50PLUS | 106702 | 1 | 1.0 |
Let’s start with examining the composition of the Tweede Kamer - under a proportional representation (D’Hondt) system. This is what the Tweede Kamer looks like currently:
Now let’s have a look at what it would look like under First-past-the-Post (FPTP), with one MP elected per Gemeente.
Now, there are a couple of obvious differences:
- The VVD has an absolute majority, despite only having 22.3% of the vote.
- There are a lot more seats in this fictional house.
But also some obvious caveats:
- Each Gemeente has a different population, but here Amsterdam and Appingedam are represented equally. In the UK, with its FPTP system, constituencies are somewhat based on population. For example London has 73 MPs, while Scotland has 59 MPs.
Election results on a map
We can also show these results on a map - this in an interactive map which allows you to explore the individual election results for each Gemeente.